Synopsis: There is a very interesting storm pattern emerging from the northern states. It is taking almost a winter-like Colorado Low approach that is very intriguing. Ahead of this is a very strong shortwave trough moving in from teh northern Kansas/central plains area....These two combined will lead to a very interesting weekend, if you like weather...!
What this means is basically there are two low pressure systems coming...one with a lot of wind and convective energy and another with a bunch of rain and a powerful jet streak...
What this means for racing at Kawartha: Right now the ECMWF and NAM are in agreeance that the rain/severe thunderstorms will be moved off to the East as the large MCS (line of severe thunderstorms) will be moving through the region just after lunch and should be clear of the speedway shortly after 3 pm....there is nothing in behind until Sunday morning when the next line will be moving in. If Derek holds out on the call he should get racing in.
What this means for Dellaware: Much of the same, but there will be two rounds of severe weather which may force delly into an early call...it may look hopeless until around 5 when the sun will start to poke back out and give way to a decent night. you guys MUST have your weather radios on...tomorrow afternoon in southwestern Ontario the ingredients are right for a few isolated tornados if some of these storms can stay ahead of the line. There may be a few scattered showers int he region until around 630 but nothing significant...after that the rain should be done.
If these tracks hold out...and the models verify (they are a lot more in agreeance today than yesterday) we will be racing!
I would also like to alert everyone to the potential for severe storms on Sunday....the ingredients look very good for tornados and supercell thunderstorms if the storms stay cellular instead of forming a line.
fingers crossed!
Just for reference....the GFS is about 6 hours slower on the exit of the precipitation. let's hope the NAM (which is usually right with precip) is the correct one.
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